French GP Undercut - Mercedes Error or Driver Performance?

The undercut that Max Verstappen pulled off on Lewis Hamilton during the French GP was crucial to the outcome of the race. Let's take a detailed look at how this transpired and whether this was a strategic blunder by Mercedes or if driver performance was the difference. People seem to be overlooking Hamilton's performance during this pitstop cycle.

A rare error from Verstappen where he ran wide at the start of the French grand prix handed the lead to Hamilton and it seemed decisive. Overnight rain had washed away the rubber and the track was green, and this coupled with blustery conditions meant that Redbull with their low downforce setup struggled more than Mercedes who had a high downforce configuration.

Hamilton running in clean air looked comfortable in the lead and gradually extended his advantage to 3.1 seconds before the first round of pitstops. Lack of grip caused by the green track meant that tire graining and degradation was considerably higher than expected.

Bottas was the first of the front runners to pit on lap 16 and according to Mercedes this relatively early stop was necessitated by a flat spot on his tire which was causing severe vibrations. Bottas was running only 2.5 seconds behind Max and Mercedes decided to bring him in and put the under cut pressure on Verstappen.

Redbull had to respond to cover this threat and pitted Max on the next lap. At this stage Lewis had a 3.1 seconds lead on Max and the Mercedes strategy models suggested that he had a sufficient gap to do an extra lap without falling victim to the undercut. However when Hamilton exited the pits after having pitted on lap 18, Verstappen was almost alongside and out braked Hamilton into turn 1 to take the race lead....much to the surprise of everyone including both Redbull and Mercedes. So, how did this happen!?

There are three aspects to a pitstop that the driver influences. 1.The inlap where a driver thrashes the tires he is about to discard and extracts maximum performance. 2. Performance in the pit lane which includes attacking the pit entry, perfect positioning in the pit box and a good getaway without wheelspin. 3. The final component is the outlap where the driver puts in a blistering lap on new tires to gain an advantage over his competitor who is still circulating on old tires.

Hamilton had a 3.1 seconds gap to Max and according to telemetry data and analysis, this is how the undercut panned out. Max's in lap was 0.9 seconds faster. His outlap was 1.8 seconds faster and he gained an additional 0.4 seconds in the pit lane although Max's pitstop was 0.1 seconds slower than Hamilton's. If you sum all this up....0.9 + 1.8 + 0.4.....it equates to 3.1 seconds and shows how the under cut worked.

Now let's look at how Hamilton performed on two fronts:

1. Inlap - Hamilton's inlap was a whopping 0.9 seconds slower than Max although he was running in clean air and should have matched, bettered or at least been within a couple of tenths of Max's inlap.

2. Pitlane Performance - Hamilton was poor/conservative on pit entry and had wheelspin on pit exit due to which he cost himself 0.5 seconds (although the Mercedes crew did a faster stop in 2.2 as against Max's 2.3).

The poor inlap and the below average pit entry and exit cost him 1.4 seconds. Mercedes predictions that he would emerge with a lead of around 1.5 seconds were actually accurate but did not materialize because the driver cost them 1.4 seconds. This clearly illustrates that this was not a strategic blunder from Mercedes but a case of Hamilton severely under performing as a driver. Even a half decent inlap within 0.5 seconds or not losing time in the pit lane would have still seen Hamilton easily slot back into the lead. Hamilton in fact emerged ahead by a tenth and was out-braked into the first corner by Verstappen.

Several experts including Jonathan Palmer have conducted the under cut analysis to a certain extent but the focus has primarily rested on Verstappen's mega outlap and nobody has highlighted Hamilton's failure to deliver on his inlap. Palmer however does a great job at analyzing telemetry data from both Verstappen's and Hamilton's inlap. A snapshot of the same is provided below which clearly shows how Max (red trace) outperforms Lewis (blue trace). I highly recommend checking out his video analysis at https://f1tv.formula1.com/

In hindsight, Mercedes could have avoided all this by pitting Hamilton on lap 17, the same lap that Max stopped but that would have meant an even longer stint on the hard tires while providing an opportunity for Max to run a long first stint like Perez and pitting around lap 25 and then charging back on fresh tires. Mercedes made a calculated decision believing they had adequate margin to go that extra lap. Even accounting for the powerful undercut and the mega outlap by Max, it only gained him 1.8 seconds and Lewis should have easily retained the lead if not for his poor in lap and pit lane performance.

This was a missed opportunity by Mercedes to arrest their slump and make a strong statement at circuit Paul Ricard which has traditionally been a stronghold. Mercedes F1 boss Toto Wolff himself admitted that Mercedes had marginally better race pace and the same was reiterated by the Mercedes strategy director James Vowles.

It is also sad to note how Mercedes always shoulders the blame for Hamilton's shortcomings in partnership with the British media who are unashamedly biased, while throwing Bottas under the bus more often than not, such as ridiculously blaming him for the wheel nut fiasco in Monaco because he stopped 3 inches short off the mark (which is well within the acceptable threshold).

This championship will be decided on fine margins like this and Max Verstappen and Redbull are definitely on a roll.